Why Overcoming Current CRE 融资 Challenges Hinge on More than 利率

Interest rates are currently at their highest level in over two decades, yet inflation persists. Though many had hoped interest rate cuts were on the horizon as early as June, 美联储(Federal Reserve)目前还不太愿意这么做, 分析师预计首次降息要到9月份.

目前的气候有商业地产业主, 占领者, 投资者, and developers sidelined and anxiously awaiting news that inflation has been tamed and the economy is stabilizing. 但这可能并不完全取决于利率的下降.

The higher cost of funds along with several other market challenges could impact lending for longer than expected.

完美风暴

“过去一年, we’ve felt the impact of the enormous influx of capital that was injected into the economy during the pandemic,特拉维斯·麦金太尔说, 朴国民银行副行长.

The issuance of Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans during the pandemic, and subsequently Economic Injury Disaster Loans (EIDL) intended to save businesses from the immediate impact of the pandemic, allowed many small businesses to pay down existing pre-pandemic loans early, 在某些情况下, 停止向银行寻求新的贷款.

这些贷款将发放到2022年, 并向企业提供固定利率为3%的延期付款.75% which made it difficult for banks to compete and decreased bank revenue, explained McIntyre.

同时, 银行的利率, known as the federal funds rate which banks used to fund short-term loan growth, 利率为0%. 当隔夜联邦基金利率开始攀升, 这些资金对银行的成本也是如此. 这意味着银行现在要支付高达5美元的利息.25%，导致压缩边距. This change resulted in banks competing for deposits to fund necessary loan growth and tightened lending as banks didn’t want to jeopardize their capital liquidity ratios.

当低潮时, 关键贷款利率对借款人有其优势, 这对那些存钱的人来说并不有利, 这也有负面影响吗.

大约15年, those planning their retirement were unable to earn a return on the money held in their savings and money market accounts and began investing their retirements in risk-to-market areas such as the stock market, 房地产投资信托基金, 还有房地产, 解释McIntrye.

这种现象遍及全国, but its pairing with the regional climate of unprecedented growth and the announcement of Intel created a microcosm in Central Ohio. 结果，价格上涨并保持在高位.

除了, 需求继续大于供应, 马特·格雷戈里解释道, NAI Ohio股票的执行董事总经理.

“随着新建筑的建设成本持续上升, 这推高了现有建筑的成本. This combined with lender’s increased underwriting requirements began to price out small businesses and the average investor,格雷戈里补充道.

“Those who wanted in on the market began paying for assets based on their equity instead of their income,麦金太尔解释道.

As a result, 商业地产 prices have risen and constrained lending.

“Buyers seeking financing now must put down as much as 40 – 45% and sometimes even 50% to cover the bank’s required debt service coverage ratio,他接着说.

市场指标

同时, core indicators that are traditionally indicative of a downturn aren’t affecting the market as they historically would.

“Consumer credit card balances are higher and bankruptcy filings have increased, 这表明消费者缺乏个人现金流,麦金太尔解释道.

然而, 道琼斯工业平均指数突破40点,000 points for the first time in May and day traders have been undeterred. 股票市场, 历史上哪一个对这些指标有反应, 受到人工智能和科技股的推动.

“Core indicators we once used to help understand the market have been inconsistent and less impactful,麦金太尔解释道. “Inflation isn’t coming down as quickly as expected and the consumer price index has increased,他解释道.

这些指标, which the Federal Reserve would traditionally use as a barometer for the effectiveness of its rate hikes, 并不能反映当前的市场环境, 导致降低利率的延迟.

贷款会继续受到影响吗??

“我们正处于一个过渡期. It’s difficult to know what the future will bring,” said McIntyre.

Solid banks will continue to lend, though some may not lend as aggressively as in recent years. Institutions that have focused on a specific asset class over the past five to seven years may need to divest if they have become too concentrated. Those institutions that have retreated from certain asset classes or ceased lending may find it more challenging to return to a robust lending model, 他解释说.

长期存在的银行, long-term relationships and a strong customer base are well positioned to continue a model of controlled growth, 他说.